World Gone Mad

Generally one to look on the positive side of things, lately I've felt a bit discouraged.

Always in search of objective truth, I've recently found that there may be too many people out there who for whatever reason can't see truth even if it slaps them in the face. I suppose they are too invested in what seems to be an almost religious fervor to believe their heroes, even when those heroes tell them it's raining on a bright and sunny day.

Name me an issue and I'll point out the lies you've been fed:

Illegal immigration: First of all, you're not even being told that all these people here from foreign countries are here illegally. The euphemism I keep hearing is "undocumented workers". The US Senate passed a bill that completely ignored all of their constituents in an outrageous pander to corporate interests, future voters, and Mexico. But they completely ignored a super-majority of their actual tax paying constituency, who they must think of as ignorant fools.

Iraq: I'll let you in on a big secret: Iraq has a government now, they are standing up their own military and police force, and American casualty rates have been decreasing steadily over the last several months. But somehow talking heads continue to suggest we're losing? And get off the "Bush lied" stupidity. Disagreement with the war for actual geopolitical reasons or general pacifistic philosophies is one thing, but the whole "Bush lied" line is tired and just plain false. Not to mention moot.

Iran: We should be very worried about Iran. Because they have openly thumbed their nose at the world and are working feverishly to build nuclear weapons. The UN won't do anything about it, and it looks like the US won't either because of all the Iraq angst and general war weariness. What's Iran going to do when they get the weapons? At minimum, they will use them to hold the world hostage. Most likely they will give small portable nuclear bombs to their many terrorists to sneak into our country and set them to explode in our cities. And right now it seems most of our population has chosen to pretend there is no risk.

Energy: So all of a sudden the oil companies just decided arbitrarily to ratchet up oil prices just so they could stick it to all of us and make obscene profits? And somehow Bush is involved in the conspiracy to enrich his friends in the oil business. So now we demand price controls or windfall profits taxes on those nasty oil companies. Anybody remember Nixon, who established price controls back in the 70's? It failed miserably, and just made things worse. What about Carter, who got a Democrat congress to pass a windfall profits tax on oil companies in the late 70's. Again a miserable failure that economists agree just made things worse. The secret? Iran's a destabilizing force in the middle east, China's buying up more oil than ever to support their exploding economy as they now make everything we buy at WalMart. Venezuela's gone Communist, Russia is creeping back toward Communism. And we in the US aren't allowed to drill for more oil anywhere or build new refineries. All put tremendous pressure toward limiting supplies, therefore higher prices. Oh yeah, alternative fuels. Sure, we could start producing cars that run on ethanol, and the farmers love the idea. Guess what ethanol costs to produce? And how long it takes to build the capacity and roll out new vehicles engineered to burn it? And hydrogen fuel cells? Way down the road, if at all. Yeah, the whole conspiracy theory stuff saying somebody already has invented 70 mpg engines but it's being suppressed by the mighty oil companies is the same stupid idea that was running around in the 70's.

Health Care: OK, we can all agree it's a mess. So what should we do about it? Canada-style socialized medicine? Tax money collected to pay for everyone's health care sounds great to people who don't pay taxes. To the rest of us who already see between 40 and 50 percent of our earnings confiscated by the government, it's a frightening idea. But even those who don't get that much taken away, just wait until you find out what socialized medicine really means. Think you wait a long time at the doctor's office today? As they say, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

There are plenty more issues, but I don't feel like writing any more.

Funny and Sad

Sometimes things strike me as funny, then sad.

This week it's the Dixie Chicks and their (air)head chick, Natalie Maines. She came out with this sort of retraction of her previous apology for saying hateful things about the president.

So, if I follow the story right, Natalie fancies herself as some sort of crusading anti-Bush spokeswoman who dissed the president a few years back during a concert. Lots of Americans took offense at her offensive remarks and led a boycott of Dixie Chicks music.

She was amazed and appalled that her political ranting would actually cost her money, so at first she went around trying to suggest that there was some sort of Nazi-style censorship going on. That flopped, so eventually she offered a vague apology for having offended anyone.

I'm guessing sales are up these days - I wouldn't know, and could not identify a Dixie Chicks song if you played it for me - so I suppose she feels like it's OK to go back to dissing Bush.

It's funny because she is such a dim bulb but somehow thinks people actually care what she has to say. As if there's anybody on the planet who would listen to her talk, if they could ever decipher the lingo filled with "like, you know" and "whatever"; and suddenly realize, "how stupid I've been to not hate Bush all these years. Why, if Natalie says he sucks, then she must be right!". Think of the millions of people who are now liberal Democrats just because of Natalie. (me laughing)

It's sad because she is such a dim bulb that she can't even see that all this behavior does is make her prove just how dim she is to the entire country. And who knows how many offended people who might have been fans of her little country girl band will never buy another CD because of her hateful and ignorant trash talk.

When will entertainers get it? If they want to get politically active, they should do so by giving some of their fortunes to their favorite candidates behind the scenes. Even showing up to perform for a politician they like would be something they could get away with now and then. But to run around spewing hatred against a president not only changes nobody's mind, but makes about half the country nauseous and hurts the entertainer's business.

Funny and sad.

Action and Adventure

Things have really popped today. All of a sudden my summer is within maybe a couple of weeks of being filled up with consulting work, it looks like I'm going to hit the road this Wednesday after all, and there's a company that seems to be interested in hiring me full-time.

With everything else, I'm beginning to think the full-time job option will get turned down pretty quickly, unless it's some kind of dream job. At the same time, I've got to get on the stick to get some of my website work finished before I get buried in other things.

It's sort of a mixed blessing. I like getting busy because it means good steady income. I dislike getting too busy because it wears me out. Too bad I can't even out all the peaks and valleys and just keep a nice, easy, even pace.

Better get back to work.

TGIF

I haven't had a day off since Christmastime, I have most of the urgent stuff done for today, and it looks nice outside. So I'm considering taking off early to go play a little golf.

Tim & I had time to kill waiting for Chris to be done with his basketball camp in Seymour last night, so we wandered around a couple of car lots. We decided that the only used car lots worthy of our business are those that post their prices. What an idiotic tradition to make you ask a salesman for a price on a vehicle, who is likely to withhold the information in an attempt to get you to test drive it and get all excited before trying to close the deal that's great for his commission but not so great for your pocket. For me, wandering around looking at vehicles and prices had the effect of making me feel better about hanging on to ol' Jed awhile longer.

The kooks who keep saying our government is somehow torturing prisoners in Gitmo despite investigations that reported the contrary have friends in the UN, which is calling for the closing of the camp and release of prisoners there. The question is, release them to where? I'd suggest just dropping them off in Cuba to become guests of Fidel when we close the camp, but that's just me.

I was sort of wondering, since most of the Gitmo prisoners are enemy combatants from Afghanistan, why not just turn them over to the Afghan government? I may have found the answer at PowerLine - check out their article titled The UN Keeps its Eye on the Ball

Musings

The depth of ignorance I encounter seems to be bottomless. Just when I think I've heard the most ignorant ideas possible, somebody proves me wrong just by speaking.

Had an unscheduled visit to the dentist yesterday afternoon. Gave in and scheduled the work they told me I needed done a year ago. Trips to the dentist for me are torture sessions. And I don't even have any national secrets to protect. (Ever seen Marathon Man? "Is it safe?")

Got a call about a 6-month full-time contract possibility in Cincinnati. Could be very nice, but would not allow me to do anything else for 6 months. Not sure it will happen, though.

Summer movie season is arriving. Cars looks like fun.

Too bad Dickie Lugar was unopposed in the primary. If a credible candidate had decided to take him on this year, I would have happily voted for him (or her). Unfortunately, when we get to November I'll probably have to hold my nose and vote for Lugar anyway. Frustrating.

Would vote against Bayh too anyway, but he's not running this time around. Both Indiana Senators have lost touch with their constituents. And their party machines don't care.

I've been home all week, which was nice for the first few days. But I'm ready to go out again. Maybe this traveling stuff is in my blood. I'm restless and bored. (And some other things, not for public consumption.)

I noticed something about the CSI shows. Not sure about Miami, but doesn't it seem like New York and Las Vegas have almost the same storyline for thier "Season Finale"? Are they using the same writers or stealing ideas from each other?

So what about The DaVinci Code? Is it heretical and anti-Christian? Yeah. I read the book, and it certainly is a novel written based on some pretty wild theories that seem to have originated from a book called "Holy Blood, Holy Grail". Treated simply as a work of fiction, it's a great read, and probably made a pretty good movie as well. But it's unfortunate that Dan Brown chose to promote the book as based on some serious questions, rather than solely a work of fiction. That makes me suspect that Brown may, for reasons I can't know, have an anti-Christian agenda in promoting information in his novel as "factual", when most every idea presented has been proven either completely false or badly distorted.

Would watching that movie be some sort of unpardonable sin? Nah, I don't think so. Watch it solely as fiction, and it is nothing more than another good movie. Watch it with the idea that it has some sort of underlying "truth" about Jesus and Mary Magdalene and the early Catholic Church, and maybe so. Want to boycott the movie to send a message about not supporting such anti-Christian stuff, like happened with the horrible Last Temptation of Christ? Go ahead, but I'm not sure it will succeed.

I want to go on vacation. Somewhere warm, on the ocean.

Better get back to work then.

Economics

I've got to admit that I wasn't the greatest Econ student back in grad school. Macro Economics in particular just about killed me, and Micro was taught by a foreign professor nobody could understand.

But I got enough out of those classes to be able to view today's big issues through an economic lens.

Take illegal immigration. Emotional topic, with lots of arguing and demonstrating and demagoguery about the legal and moral issues. Which by the way I am on the law-and-order side of the argument, and agree with those who think we need strong border enforcement and to deal harshly with employers who cheat by hiring illegal immigrants. But that's not what this post is about.

What this post is about is the economic impact of illegal immigration on our society. Let's assume for a moment that the estimate of 12 million illegals in the USA is fairly accurate. That's a staggering number, which can't help but have a real impact on the nation's economy. What is that impact?

Basically, a large influx of workers who are willing to work for below-market wages impacts many sectors of the economy. Those workers take jobs many native-born citizens consider beneath them. They take jobs for lower wages than would be acceptable to citizens. That lowers cost of production, thus lowers consumer prices and increases company profits. It is quite a testament to the strength of the American economy that we have absorbed these gigantic numbers of illegal immigrants in addition to the many legal immigrants that came in the front door and still have a healthy and growing economy with low unemployment rates.

The downside of this trend is that American citizens are now finding that jobs they want are also being given to illegal immigrants. Traditionally higher-paying jobs in the construction trades and manufacturing are now being given preferentially to illegals by companies who have discovered that they can hire those workers at much lower hourly rates without fear of government sanctions. And the traditional student employers in fast food, lawn care, and other services are abandoning their student workers in favor of illegals who accept lower wages and don't have school schedules to work around.

Let's say that tomorrow our government answered the demands of those who want the border sealed and all illegal immigrants rounded up and deported. Note that when the President says it's impossible, he can't really mean it's impossible, because if our government had the will it absolutely could be done. What he really means is that it would shock the economy too much to undertake. Here's why.

Suppose that tomorrow we find and deport all 12 million or so illegals. The immediate effect is a void in the jobs those people were filling. Companies will have two choices: either recruit new employees to fill those jobs at market rates, or close. It is safe to assume that most of the companies will raise their wages to attract workers.

Higher wages sounds great for the workers, right? Sure, it would be. For a very short time. But think about it for a minute. Let's say millions of jobs that were being filled by illegals at $5 per hour now must be filled at twice that, or $10 per hour. That means everybody else who is currently earning $6 to $10 per hour in more highly skilled jobs will demand they be paid equitably in comparison to the entry-level people now making more than them. And so on, throughout the entire salary scale, bottom to top. Great for everyone, right?

Not so great. It's called inflation. Upward pressure on wages due to a lack of supply in the labor market will place a corresponding upward pressure on prices. As prices rise, demand will decrease for the end products. With reduced demand for products comes reduced demand for workers to produce those products. Higher wages will bid up prices for everything, inflating the economy throughout. The inevitable result is recession. And given the relatively significant percentage of the workforce today that may be illegal, the recession could be deep and long-lasting.

That's why Bush wants a guest worker program. Such a program guarantees a permanent entry-level underclass of $5 per hour workers. Morally I have a major problem with creating such a permanent poverty-level working class just to prop up the economy. Moreover, the cynical reality of the guest-worker concept understands that if these low-wage visitors are given a path toward citizenship, they will become Americans in many ways, including becoming activists demanding higher wages and benefits for themselves. Thus the guest worker program instead of easier immigration policies.

Therefore, my preference would be a gradual change that protects borders, admits immigrants based on carefully designed limits, and over time eliminates the illegal class. I also have a major problem with importing high-tech workers from India and the Far East to take jobs of native-born Americans simply because they will accept a fraction of Americans' salaries. If these trends continue, eventually there will no longer be a middle class, because even the most highly skilled workers increasingly have to compete with people from around the globe for their jobs.

I've been installing payroll systems for companies of all kinds around the country for about 25 years now, and the trends I've seen over the years are disturbing. Back in the '80s and early 90's, payrolls had a nice wage distribution. The exectives brought in the nice 6 figure salaries, followed by managers in the 70's to 100K, then supervisors in the 40's to 50's, then the line workers from the 30's to 50's. Now those payrolls have changed. Executives now pull in high 6-figures and often 7 figures. The Manager class has been slashed to a small fraction of people compared to the past, and their salaries have not increased. Supervisors are no longer professionally trained and certified, but are better described as "Lead Clerks" or "Team Leaders", which means they are more like senior front-line workers placed on salary so they can be forced to work uncompensated overtime. For example, companies used to employ a Payroll Manager who was a highly professional and often certified expert in payroll. Today, instead of a Payroll Manager there is a Payroll Supervisor or Payroll Coordinator who earns half what the Payroll Manager was paid, is not a certified professional, and knows only what she was taught by the Controller about processing the company payroll using advanced software systems that make everything nearly foolproof. And finally, the front-line workers have not gained any noticable wage increases, and generally earn the same or even less than the same groups did 20 years ago.

The weakening of labor unions, the introduction of new technologies, outsourcing, offshoring, and the influx of low-wage legal and illegal immigrants all contributed to these trends. And it is true, based on my actual observations at so many companies around the country, that the average American worker may be able to stay employed, but has not made any real gains in wages. No doubt, the typical American household needs 2 full-time incomes to maintain a middle-class lifestyle, whether they are educated and skilled or not.

I wonder if any of this is discussed in college economics classrooms? Because I sure don't hear it discussed in the American media.

If you can't say anything nice ...

My Mom used to say it to us, as many other mothers said to their children:

If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all

Lately I've been subjected to incessant negativity from people I care about, talking about other people I care about. Or even talking about others I don't know or care about personally. Such vitriol does nothing but upset me. When I blurted out, "Just stop! I don't want to hear any more.", I got the response, "You are so naive. Wake up! Get your head out of the sand!"

Want to call me naive? Go ahead. I still don't want to hear it. Save it for somebody who loves gossip. I'll make my own judgements about others' characters, thank you.

Unfortunately I can't change the behavior of others. But I can renew and strengthen my promise to myself: I will not speak negatively about anyone, nor will I listen to anyone who desires to poison my relationship with another. Why do you want so badly to spoil my opinion of another, anyway?

I'm sorry for so many people who seem to live their lives in hatred and anger. What a waste of time and emotion. If one really can't stand to be around an individual for whatever reason, just avoid that person; why go beyond and attempt to impose your hatred or bias on others?

Questions

Just wondering ...

How is it that the very people who have successfully shut down domestic oil exploration through environmental laws are now the most vocally angry about high gas prices?

If your contention that major US oil companies are sticking it to all of us just because they can, then how do you explain the late '90s, when gas was under $1 a gallon and oil companies were hurting and going out of business?

If we do what you want and immediately and abruptly pull all our troops out of Iraq, do you really believe there will be no consequences for either us or the Iraqis? Would you be OK with the results, which would almost certainly be hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis in a civil war, a takeover of Iraq by Iran, and a major escalation in the jihad against us almost immediately?

Just how do you think diplomacy will actually stop Iran from building nuclear bombs and launching them at Israel and sending them over here with their terrorist cells to detonate in our own cities? So we just say, "we want to be your friends, please don't make nukes", then they will say, "why didn't you say something? Of course, we'll stop building nukes right now!"?

What is congress doing about illegal immigration? Who said we need a new law, when there are plenty of existing laws that just haven't been enforced? Isn't the only thing needed just appropriation of money to seal the borders, prosecute employers who knowingly employ illegals, and simply process and deport those here illegally? Do you think your favorite Senators who are more focused on amnesty than enforcement really have any intention to solve the problem?

The economy is better than it's been in a decade, so why is everyone so spitting angry?

Why does the "culture of corruption" keep playing prominently about two or three Republican indictments that are seriously weak, when there are far more serious credible charges against Democrat lawmakers that aren't even mentioned on the evening news? Wouldn't you say at a minimum that corruption happens in both parties among corrupt individuals?

Seniors now get their prescription drugs paid for by the government, so why are they so angry about it?

What's all this ugliness against Christians? Are those of us who happen to be believers blowing up more people than Islamic terrorists? If you can call the President all manner of vile and profane names and accuse him of awful and untrue things, why can't Christians simply mention that, uh, you know, some behaviors are wrong and sort of disgusting.

You think everybody who hates Bush is being secretly and illegally surveilled? If so, would you mind giving me a name of a single person who has been unfairly arrested, imprisoned, questioned, harrassed, fired, ridiculed, audited? Just one name?

If you're going to be angry at the president or congress, don't you think you should at least find out the facts to make sure what exactly you should be angry about?

Picking the right Customs Agent

So this week I returned to the border to try again. And the guy in the customs booth this time barely gave me a second look. All I went through to find my old diplomas and degrees, even ordering replacements for the ones I lost, was for nothing.

Instead of paying the (reportedly) exhorbitant fee to expedite some sort of Canadian work permit, the company was advised by their attorney to write a better letter and have me try again. Yes, the new letter is better and more clearly written, but it still doesn't say much of anything that's different than the original letter that got me turned away last month.

I wonder, every time I go to Canada am I going to have to worry about which customs agent looks over my passport? That's the theory of the people at the client - it's all just who you get. They even theorized that it might be a gender thing, since the agent that turned me away last month was a female, and the one that waved me on through was male.

The only thing I can say for sure is that the female agent that turned me away definitely seemed to have an attitude. Exactly what her problem was, I can't guess. Because I'm male? Because I'm white? Because I remind her of somebody she hates? Because she's angry at all the people from the US coming to Canada to make money?

Beats me. If only I could peer into the booth before driving up and switch to the "right" one every time.

Know what's irritating about going to Canada? Coming home with a bunch of Canadian change in my pocket that isn't worth anything here. And it's not worth trying to exchange, especially because the currency exchange at the Indy airport has a $50 minimum and charges an exhorbitant fee. Anybody want to give me a couple bucks American for about 3 bucks in Canadian coins?