Democrats think they're going to win tomorrow. Republicans believe they'll win. Both sides predict the election will be very close, and could go either way.
Democrats think the popular vote will be razor-thin, and could end up favoring Romney, but they believe the key swing states - especially Ohio - will push Obama over the finish line for an electoral college victory. It's sort of interesting that the party that's pushed hard to eliminate the electoral college since Bush beat Gore is suddenly silent on that issue.
Averaging of polls show a tie or slight edge for Obama. But the Republicans believe the left-leaning pollsters have skewed the average to make the race look much more favorable for Obama than reality might indicate. The Republican argument is that liberal pollsters are expecting the same turnout in swing states as 2008, therefore they filter their respondents by party affiliation to oversample Democrats by 9 percentage points more than Republicans.
So if the Republicans are right about the oversampling, it looks like a Romney victory or maybe a Romney blowout. Democrats understand their success hinges on their constituents showing up and voting in the same or very similar numbers to 2008.
There are little indicators being ignored by the media that aren't guarantees, but suggestive of a Romney advantage. Romney rallies in the last couple of weeks are drawing tens of thousands of enthusiastic supporters, while Obama events are drawing from a few hundred to a couple of thousand people only, and those crowds are much less enthusiastic.
As would be obvious to anyone who has read my blog, my hope is for a Romney blowout. The key factor I'm using is mostly ignored by the media and pundits - I believe in the resurgence of the Christian Conservative base. Obama has stirred up the Christian base with the HHS mandate, his radically pro-abortion policies and rhetoric, cancelling Don't Ask - Don't Tell, and supporting Gay Marriage. Catholics who actually go to Mass and Evangelicals have joined together in common cause to fire Obama, and I tend to believe they'll make the difference.
If you have an energized Moral Majority and a super-majority of Independents behind you in addition to the rest of the core Conservative base, there aren't enough Democrats in the population to overcome that wave. That's why I think Romney might win decisively.
What puzzles me is the conflicting reporting on early voting. USA Today this morning claims that Democrats have an edge among the early voters, but other outlets like Fox News are reporting the oppposite - that Republicans have a significant turnout advantage. The best explanation I can find for that discrepancy may be that the Fox News turnout advantage refers to nationwide turnout, while USA Today is claiming the Democrat edge for swing states only. I guess we'll see.
Will the Unions, Trial Lawyers, Blacks, Hispanics, Gays, Illegal Immigrants, College Students & Professors, Welfare Dependents, Dead People, Convicted Felons, Fraudulent Voters and Socialist/Communists turn out in high enough numbers to overcome the energized Christians, Businesspeople, White Middle-to-Upper Classes, Coal Miners, Oil Workers, Intact Families, and Federalists/Capitalists?
Hopefully we will know when we wake up Wednesday morning. But wouldn't it be nice if we could hear this announcement by 11PM Tuesday?
"(ABC/NBC/CBS/Fox News/CNN) can now call the race for Mitt Romney in a landslide".
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