Monday, December 17, 2012

Telling Me I Should Support Obama

Somebody told me I should be an Obama supporter, not opponent or detractor.  Because he's been good for my personal economy.

That's true, I'm busier than ever largely because of Obama's love for government regulation. Because I help companies comply with regulations every day. And boy do companies have piles of new regulations to which they must comply, and quickly.

I almost feel like an ancillary government employee without the health and pension benefits.

Clients are worried about the "fiscal cliff".  They fear that massive new tax regulations will be passed with no notice, and may even be retroactive.

Sure, the idiots in Washington are capable of pulling that sort of kooky policy on America.  But my personal analysis is that there are two scenarios that are most likely to play out at year end.  I'm thinking the odds of the two options are about 50-50, although I'm leaning toward the second option being more likely.

Option 1: Boehner and Obama decide to join hands and jump off the cliff together.  It means a return to Clinton-era tax policy.  Most likely companies will be told after they've already issued their first payroll of 2013.  Those companies are just hoping they're not forced to adjust their employees' next paychecks to collect the extra taxes. What is certain to happen under this scenario is angry phone calls from employees into every company's payroll department, asking why his or her net pay is so much lower than it was in December?! The media of course will tell them it's the Republicans fault, because they refused to compromise with the President.

Option 2: Nothing happens.  Congress passes the buck by passing a bill that keeps all tax rates exactly as they are today, setting a new deadline 3 or 6 months out.  So no scrambling to get new rates in the payroll systems, and no need to worry about retroactive tax collections.  But the fight will go on.  And on, and on, and on ....

Strangely, I always thought "Compromise" meant that in order for one side to get what he wants (i.e. tax rates higher for the "rich"), he offers something the other side wants in return (i.e. cutting some spending, or relaxing bans on energy development).

But Obama's definition seems to be, "I get what I want.  I give you nothing.  I won.  You lost".  So unless the GOP Representatives suddenly have their privates surgically removed, no deal is possible.  Therefore, a binary choice - jump off the cliff or pitch a tent at the cliff's edge and keep arguing for a few more months.

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