I checked out the too-early debate last night with five of the GOP presidential hopefuls. It seems to have been an opportunity for the lesser-known candidates to get exposure, and because the top contenders didn't show up, it was also a chance for top-tier candidate Tim Pawlenty to test his debate chops.
From my perspective, Pawlenty succeeded. He seemed poised and confident, and provided plenty of red meat for the Republican audience in South Carolina. His performance ranked him first on my scorecard.
The sneering Left will accuse Fox News as being too cozy with the candidates, but the panel did a great job feeding tough questions. This was no softball MSNBC-hosted Democrat debate, nor was it Chris Mathews and Keith Olbermann throwing 'when did you stop beating your wife' spitballs. The Fox panel asked pertinent and challenging questions, sparing no one and following up to demand substantive answers from the candidates.
Ron Paul is certainly consistent, reprising his role in the debate as the maverick libertarian in the race. I know he excites a certain segment of young libertarians, but he's still a little too far out there for my tastes.
Herman Cain is an interesting candidate, and I thought he did well in the debate. He's the exact sort of black conservative we'd love to see running against Obama to put the lie to the constant drumbeat over the course of Obama's presidency that conservatives who oppose his policies do so only because of racism.
Rick Santorum tried to convey strong convictions and the mythical "fire in the belly" as the social conservative champion. But I thought he seemed nervous, and had some difficulty putting the right words together; I felt like I could see him fighting an internal losing battle with himself to suppress those nerves. I've heard him speak before and like him, so I could tell he wasn't totally on his game on this important stage.
Gary Johnson turned in the worst performance of the night, to the degree that he's the one candidate of the five I've already scratched off the list. Besides my disagreement with many of his ideas, I wasn't impressed with him in the way he looked or talked, and was irritated at his carping over not getting enough attention from the panel.
When the rest of the field gets in, I don't look forward to the cattle-call debates. When you get much beyond last night's 5 candidates, debates don't really work, because there's no way anyone can have enough time to give people a true sense of who they are and what they believe. I wonder how future debate organizers will address that problem, or if they will even try.
At least there will be something for everyone in the Republican field. Ron Paul the libertarian, Santorum, Huckabee and Michelle Bachmann the social conservatives, Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels joining Romney as the fiscal conservatives downplaying the social angle to court moderates, Herman Cain the anti-Obama, Sarah Palin and Donald Trump the celebrity candidates.
I'm not ready to support anybody yet, willing to let things play out. Although I do profess a strong leaning in favor of Daniels just because I know him as my home state's governor.
Polling suggests it's Romney's to lose, in a race with Huckabee, Trump and Palin. But I think those polls are more about name recognition than anything else at this point, and don't really believe those are the main contenders. Not to mention I'm not all that comfortable with any of those top-polling candidates.
My prediction is that the race will eventually come down to the establishment candidates, who will have the party machinery solidly behind them. Romney, Daniels, and Pawlenty are the three most likely to win the nomination in my opinion, with Huckabee the dark horse. Despite all the buzz around folks like Trump and Palin, I don't see them appealing to a broad enough base of GOP voters to succeed.
Now we'll see who proves me wrong.
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